But by talking to the people who lived in these communities, scientists are filling in historic gaps that technology can’t fill, adding trees, cars, people, photographs and life stories to the digitized infrastructure that was an initial focus of the work.

The research team from The Ohio State University has published an update on the Ghost Neighborhoods of Columbus project in the International Journal of Digital Humanities, reporting on the technology workflow, including solutions to bottlenecks they’ve encountered, and acknowledging a slow start to community engagement that hums along nicely these days. The team aims to put both the digital work and story collection on a faster track. 

Launched in early 2021, the project has digitally reconstructed three historically Black communities that were fragmented or demolished to make way for new freeways under the 1956 National Interstate and Defense Highways Act. Prompted by a Columbus Dispatch article describing the heartbreak of highways being built through neighborhoods, the researchers set out to recount the human impact of urban renewal decisions of the past, hoping that these historic insights could have a positive impact on any future development. 

“Doing this in a community-engaged way is not trivial,” said senior study author Harvey Miller, professor of geography and director of Ohio State’s Center for Urban and Regional Analysis (CURA). “What we’re trying to do is show how we went about making sure that these models not only have validity, but that they actually reflect what people remember, what these neighborhoods used to look like – and also add value to the community.” 

While the project started as a purely scientific pursuit, the digital models and accompanying stories have found a future permanent home. The Poindexter Village African American Museum, set to open in 2028, will have a room dedicated to the Ghost Neighborhoods, said Shelbi Toone, project director for the museum, which will be the newest site within the Ohio History Connection system. 

Poindexter Village, an early U.S. public housing project and the only one dedicated to African American residents, is one area recaptured in 3D models by CURA researchers. Only two of the 35 original apartment buildings still stand, and those structures, connected by an atrium to be built between them, will house the new museum. 

The other communities modeled in the project are Hanford Village as it looked in 1961 and Mount Vernon Avenue in 1951. Much of Hanford Village, established in the early 1900s and expanded during World War II to house Black veterans, was razed for construction of I-70 in the 1960s. Mount Vernon Avenue was a busy commercial corridor in the mid-20th century before its connection to Downtown was severed by construction of I-71. 

Miller and colleagues reported in 2023 on using machine learning to extract data from Sanborn fire insurance maps to create digital models. Since then, the researchers have focused on efforts to automate the generation of 3D models that are historically accurate, which has been a taller order. 

Graduate student Tshui Mum (Summer) Ha has been working on ways to streamline and accelerate the 3D modeling process. This includes finding similar groups of buildings based on their shapes and semantic attributes – such as the number of stories, building use and construction materials – identifying their architectural elements, and developing templates for 3D modeling. 

“Many existing studies have been using just the exterior walls of the buildings for clustering. We realized that including semantic attributes of those building footprints is a huge improvement compared to just looking at the exterior walls. We also found that having interior lines of the buildings may hold additional value to further improve the clustering results, and this will be our next step,” Ha said.

“The better we can cluster these buildings, the better we can understand their distinctive architectural styles and the more accurately we can generate plausible 3D models at scale. We are benchmarking these methods that, hopefully, we would be able to identify the most effective approach to help us speed up the modeling process.” 

The goal to speed things up is, in part, related to making community engagement as productive as possible. 

To date, the team has been building historically accurate models and then asking for elder feedback in a variety of ways, often attending community meetings with stickers and storyboards that attendees use to add finishing touches that bring the models to life. 

“For all three neighborhoods, we’re adding more realistic backgrounds like brick streets and grass so it’s not just a map,” Miller said. “What we’d like to do is generate a first approximation of a neighborhood using accelerated techniques, engage people in the process early on, and come back later with a more polished product. Not too far in the future, we expect to be able to take a laptop with 3D models, ask people, ‘What do you think about this building?’ and make adjustments on the spot.” 

Toone, the museum project director, connected the CURA team with James Preston Poindexter Foundation historians and elders to record oral histories related to landmarks and neighborhoods in the models, which will also be featured in the museum. 

“I thought this was something that people need to see and experience. It needs to be tangible to the public,” said Toone, also a co-author of the paper. “There’s a lot of narrative to tell when you pull back to 1940 and really talk about the thriving neighborhood that used to be there. And I think it gives people a true sense of preservation and understanding of what was here through the technology since so many of these buildings have turned over, been demolished or changed.” 

Soon, the team plans to ask elders for suggestions for other lost-city themes – ideas for churches and the funk music scene have been floated so far – that should be similarly digitally re-created with accompanying stories. 

“One important thing is that we’re trying to establish a platform for people in the community to tell their stories,” Miller said. “They’re not our stories – they’re theirs.” 

This work was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the Battelle Engineering, Technology and Human Affairs endowment at Ohio State. 

Additional Ohio State co-authors include Ningchuan Xiao, Matthew Lewis, Mostahidul Alam, Oliver Gwynn, Michelle Hooper, Karyn Kerdolff, Gavin Levine, Yuantai Li, Mahnoush Mostafavisabet, Joshua Sadvari, Josie Stiver, Jordan Swaim-Fox, Shubh Thakkar, Ahmad Ilderim Tokey and Di Wang.

By Noah Dormady
Associate Professor of Public Policy, The Ohio State University

The HAB severity index is based on the bloom’s biomass (the amount of algae) during the peak 30 days of the bloom. Moderate blooms have an index of 3-5, while an index above 5 indicates more severe HABs. Blooms over 7 are particularly severe, with extensive scum formation and bloom coverage affecting the lake.

Stone Laboratory and Ohio Sea Grant at The Ohio State University hosted a live web event today for NOAA’s annual official HABS forecast for western Lake Erie.  

Lake Erie HABs consisting of cyanobacteria (i.e. blue-green algae) are capable of producing microcystin, a known liver toxin which poses a risk to human and wildlife health. Such blooms can lead cities and local governments to add more treatment to drinking water and close beaches. HABs also harm local economies by preventing people from fishing, swimming, boating and visiting the shoreline, with annual economic impacts estimated at over $70 million for the Lake Erie region.

The size of a HAB is not necessarily an indication of how toxic it is. Each algal bloom is unique in terms of size, toxicity and ultimately its impact on local communities. NOAA continues to develop new tools to detect and predict how toxic blooms will be.

“Harmful algal bloom forecasts are critically important for communities around Lake Erie to plan and prepare, and are a key part of NOAA’s scientific service to the nation,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “The Great Lakes are a driver of economic activity throughout the region and environmental outlooks can help ensure the hazards of toxic algae are well understood to protect public health.”

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s (NCCOS) Lake Erie HAB Forecast website provides predictions and visualizations of the bloom’s location and movement on the lake’s surface, as well as where the bloom is located within the water column. This information is especially helpful to water treatment plant operators because intake structures are usually located below the surface, so the risk of toxins in their source water may be greater when these cells sink.

The field observations used for monitoring and modeling are collected in partnership with a number of NOAA offices, including its Ohio River Forecast Center, NCCOS, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, as well as Ohio Sea Grant, Ohio State’s Stone Laboratory, The University of Toledo and Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

NOAA expects to see a visible bloom by early July. How long it lasts will depend on the frequency of high winds in September, which cannot be predicted this far in advance. Most of the bloom will remain in areas of the lake’s western basin. The central basin of the lake is usually unaffected until later in the season, although localized blooms may occur around some of the rivers after summer rainstorms.

NOAA will issue a seasonal forecast update in late July based on observed nutrient loads from the Maumee River watershed into the western basin. In addition to the early season projections, NOAA also issues HAB forecasts during the bloom season with details about the bloom’s current extent. NOAA also provides five-day outlooks, which are predictions of where the bloom will travel and the concentrations of blue-green algae which are likely to be seen, allowing local authorities to make informed management decisions.

• Researchers are working directly with water treatment plant operators to optimize removal of cyanotoxins.
• Several HABRI projects have helped the Ohio EPA understand the nature of how nutrients move from the working landscape to streams and, ultimately, Lake Erie. This allows us to better plan for and support nutrient reduction implementation actions.
• Researchers at Bowling Green State University and Ohio State are collaborating with the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and local farmers on cutting-edge research on the beneficial use of Lake Erie dredge sediment as an agricultural soil amendment, evaluating its effects on soil health, nutrient retention and exports to waterways, crop yields, and its economic feasibility. This research is providing information for stakeholders on using dredge sediment as an alternative fertilizer source, returning sediment with optimal nutrient levels back to the land to restore soil loss by erosion and improve soil health.
• Research on ways water and nutrients move across the landscape has strengthened models that help Ohio evaluate Gov. Mike DeWine’s H2Ohio Initiative and overall progress toward the state’s nutrient reduction goal.
• HABRI 2022 research has demonstrated that blending 10% Drinking Water Treatment Material (DWTM) with manure will permanently bind 90% of the dissolved reactive phosphorus in manure. Based on the results of the research, the Ohio EPA is working with Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and Ohio State University Extension to update the NRCS 590 standard to include blending manure with DWTM prior to land application to farm fields. This would stop the immediate phosphorus pollution of waters in the Lake Erie watershed. Adding two-stage ditches with or without DWTM will further reduce dissolved reactive phosphorus and soil erosion in the watershed.
• New information regarding nutrient loss pathways, as well as losses from nutrient application activities and losses from residual soil phosphorus, is helping the ODA adjust program practices and specifications to better address nutrient loss from row crop agriculture.
• The ODNR H2Ohio Wetland Restoration Program is building connections to the academic community to align research with management decisions related to optimizing and maintaining restored wetlands to enhance the capacity for nutrient reduction.

“So many HABRI research projects have informed us about the effectiveness of programs and projects included in Ohio’s Domestic Action Plan and the H2Ohio best management practices being employed,” said Ohio Lake Erie Commission Executive Director Joy Mulinex on behalf of ODNR, Ohio EPA and ODA.

HABRI is funded by the Ohio Department of Higher Education, with $24.5 million made available since 2015. Matching funding from participating Ohio universities increases the total investment to more than $37 million, demonstrating the state’s overall commitment to addressing the harmful algal bloom issue. 

Final results from 19 projects funded from 2021-2024 make up this year’s report, in addition to one-year results of 12 projects funded in 2022. A new round of 17 projects were just awarded funding in 2024 and are highlighted by name in the 2024 report.

“In the nearly 10 years since we began funding this program, the collaboration of our campuses and state agencies, coupled with Gov. DeWine’s leadership through the H2Ohio program, have made great strides in addressing water quality issues,” said ODHE Chancellor Mike Duffey. “I know this work will continue to improve the quality of life in our state and I’m proud of the role our universities play in this effort.” 

HABRI comprises 114 expert research teams from Bowling Green State University, Case Western Reserve University, Central State University, Defiance College, Heidelberg University, Kent State University, Oberlin College, Sinclair Community College, The University of Akron, the University of Cincinnati, Miami University, Wright State University, Youngstown State University and consortium leaders the University of Toledo and Ohio State. 

Information about HABRI projects, as well as partner organizations and background on the initiative, is also available on the Ohio Sea Grant website at go.osu.edu/habri. The report can be downloaded directly at http://ohioseagrant.osu.edu/p/k6g31

Ohio Sea Grant is supported by The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES) School of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University Extension, and NOAA Sea Grant, a network of 34 Sea Grant programs nationwide dedicated to the protection and sustainable use of marine and Great Lakes resources. Stone Laboratory is Ohio State’s island campus on Lake Erie and is the research, education and outreach facility of Ohio Sea Grant and part of SENR.

The finding came from a planned study of secondary outcomes of the HEALing (Helping to End Addiction Long-Term) Communities Study (HCS), which tested an intervention encompassing data-driven adoption of evidence-based practices for reducing overdose deaths in Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio. 

Death rates from specific combinations of opioids with stimulants other than cocaine, most commonly fentanyl mixed with methamphetamine, were 8.9 per 100,000 adults in intervention communities compared to 14.1 per 100,000 adults in comparison communities that did not receive the intervention – a statistically significant difference.

The findings were published today (Oct. 21, 2024) in JAMA Network Open. 

With the prescription medications that started the opioid crisis harder to obtain by the time the trial began, fentanyl was rapidly entering the illicit drug market in combination with methamphetamine, cocaine, counterfeit pills and other stimulants, said Bridget Freisthler, lead author of the new study and a professor at The Ohio State University. 

“Now we have a whole new group of people developing addiction to opioids,” said Freisthler, Ohio’s principal investigator for the HEALing Communities Study. “It was nice to see that we were able to achieve reductions in overdose deaths involving this combination of opioids, primarily fentanyl and psychostimulants, not including cocaine, because that’s the most recent wave in the epidemic that we’re seeing.” 

Analysis of other drug combinations showed that intervention communities had lower rates of overdose deaths from an opioid mixed with cocaine (6%) and an opioid mixed with benzodiazepine (1%), but that these differences did not reach statistical significance. 

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) launched the HEALing Communities Study in 2019. Participating community coalitions implemented 615 strategies to address opioid-related overdose deaths across health care, justice and behavioral health settings. Based on data indicating which interventions were best suited to areas they served, agencies selected from three “menus” of evidence-based practices focused on overdose education and naloxone distribution, increasing exposure to medication for opioid use disorder, and safer opioid prescribing.  

Researchers reported in June on the main outcome of HCS – that the intervention did not result in a statistically significant reduction in opioid overdose death rates during the evaluation period. In this study, the authors found that intervention communities had an 8% lower rate of all drug overdoses compared to control communities, which was estimated to represent 525 fewer drug overdose deaths. 

In the new paper, researchers reported that more than 40% of overdose deaths in the study involved the combination of at least one opioid and a stimulant. 

The evidence of higher prevalence of fentanyl in the illicit drug market led coalition agencies to adjust communication efforts accordingly, said Freisthler, also the Cooper-Herron Professor in Mental Health at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. 

“We were already shifting to where psychostimulants had fentanyl in them and messages weren’t reaching the right folks because people who use psychostimulants think of themselves as using meth or cocaine, not opioids,” she said. “So we had to make it clear that fentanyl could be in every drug and that nobody was really immune from the possibility of an overdose. Communities emphasized that this is a multiple-drug issue, not just a fentanyl issue or an opioid issue. 

“In many ways, the fact we’re looking at this particular outcome is because communities were so invested in it and so concerned, and wanted it to be a focus of the study.” 

The potential for naloxone to prevent overdose deaths in people who use multiple drugs was also incorporated into communication campaigns implemented by all intervention communities, which may have helped prevent deaths, researchers said. 

Participating agencies were very good at advocating for themselves, Freisthler said, and the front-end work ideally will leave communities even better prepared to address overdoses going forward. 

“The HCS was beneficial to Brown County in numerous ways,” said Deanna Vietze, executive director of the Brown County Board of Mental Health and Addiction Services in southwest Ohio. “It affirmed the work already underway, allowed for expansion of best practices, helped engage new partners, strengthened existing partnerships, and allowed innovative purchases that forged outreach opportunities that will continue to positively impact Brown County citizens for years to come.” 

Ohio study leaders are intent on making sure lessons and success stories from the study are widely available through a website providing a range of materials, and are meeting with groups interested in implementing the evidence-based practices in their own communities. 

“The drug overdose crisis is pervasive in our communities, and we’ve got multigenerational and intergenerational trauma affecting families. That’s not going to change overnight,” Freisthler said. “That means we need to continue to improve understanding of this crisis, and reduce overdose deaths so we don’t have another generation experiencing the same sort of trauma.” 

The HEALing Communities Study was supported and carried out in partnership between the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration through the NIH HEAL Initiative.  

A $65.9 million NIH award funding Ohio State’s leadership of the Ohio portion of the study was housed in the university’s College of Medicine. Co-authors of the paper included study site principal investigators Sharon Walsh of the University of Kentucky, Nabila El-Bassel of Columbia University, T. John Winhusen of the University of Cincinnati, Jeffrey Samet of Boston Medical Center and Emmanuel Oga of RTI International.

Ohio State President Walter “Ted” Carter Jr. led the university’s state tour this week to stops in Cleveland, Oberlin and Medina, among others. The state tour is an opportunity for university representatives to meet with business leaders, community members and alumni outside of Columbus and highlight the shared connections in Ohio.

Carter, who was joined by Ohio State First Lady Lynda Carter, spoke at Green Circle Growers, the first stop on the tour, which is an expansive greenhouse operation that has workforce and research partnerships with the College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.

“Lynda and I just couldn’t be more excited to be here along with some of our faculty and, most importantly, these phenomenal students that came up to be with us here on a two-day tour visit of northeast Ohio,” Carter said. “The agricultural mission of Ohio is so important. One in eight people in the state of Ohio work in the ag and food industry. It’s an industry that has over $124 billion in economic impact. So it’s important for us to be here.”

Partnerships and impact are themes Carter mentioned often during the tour. He also visited Patterson Fruit Farm and Sandridge Crafted Foods. Both are family-owned and operated companies led by Ohio State alumni, with university research partnerships embedded in their culture.

The state tour also highlighted the university’s efforts to give back to the community. The Office of Student Life joined staff from the Cavaliers, representatives from Coca-Cola and members of the National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics to aid the Children’s Hunger Alliance.

Working on the court at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, they teamed up to pack 2,300 weekend meal boxes (or the equivalent of 13,800 meals) to distribute to more than 50 partners across the state. The students who participated in the project said it was among the highlights of the trip.

“Honestly, it was amazing, just being a part of a cause that was bigger than all of us,” said Anthony Koulianos, a fourth-year neuroscience major.

On day two of the tour, the university helped open the Lake County Fair. The 169th year of the county fair celebrated the agricultural roots of the region – aided by Ohio State University Extension in Lake County and university-supported 4-H programs.

Carter, students and university staff toured livestock areas, visited the poultry show and helped lead the national anthem.

The state tour also helped the university connect with the future. The Office of Strategic Enrollment Management hosted a pep rally at Mentor High School in one of the largest school districts in Lake County.

About 200 people attended the pep rally, including current Mentor students and staff as well as prospective students from area high schools. Members of the Ohio State Marching Band celebrated students from the region who will be joining Ohio State in the fall. Carter spoke to the crowd about the value of a college degree and the university’s commitment to affordability, noting that 58% of Ohio State graduates leave school without debt.

“We not only want our students to come, learn, grow, become critical thinkers. We also want them to be successful,” he said. “We also want them to know that there are great opportunities within the state of Ohio.”

Kimmara Yarbrough, a fifth-year nursing major, said the state tour helped her understand the passion people in Ohio have for the university.

“I think Ohio State has the craziest school spirit I’ve ever seen in my life,” she said. “Seeing alumni that excited to come back, and even people who didn’t come to Ohio State, they just saw us there and they wanted to say, ‘Hi.’ Their children were like, ‘I want to go there. I want to see Brutus. I want to see the drum major.’ So it just goes to show that the community we build at Ohio State and the spirit that we have here really drives what we do.”

This year’s bloom is expected to measure 5, with a potential range of 4.5-6 on the severity index — similar to last year’s bloom, which had a severity index of 5.3. Moderate blooms have an index of 3-5, while an index above 5 indicates more severe HABs. Blooms over 7.5 are particularly severe, with extensive scum formation and coverage affecting the lake. The largest HABs occurred in 2011, with a severity index of 10, and 2015, with a severity index of 10.5.

The HAB severity index is based on the bloom’s biomass (the amount of algae) during the peak 30 days of the bloom.

“Understanding hazards such as harmful algal blooms helps us ensure the Great Lakes are a power in the Blue Economy,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “As the science behind our forecasts improves, we can give communities better information to plan for varying blooms.”

The forecast was announced today during a briefing hosted by Ohio Sea Grant and The Ohio State University’s Stone Laboratory.

What to know about HABs

Lake Erie HABs consisting of cyanobacteria (i.e. blue-green algae) are capable of producing microcystin, a known liver toxin which poses a risk to human and wildlife health. Such blooms can force cities and local governments to treat drinking water and close beaches. HABs also harm vital local economies by preventing people from fishing, swimming, boating and visiting the shoreline. 

The size of a HAB is not necessarily an indication of how toxic it is. For example, the toxins in a large bloom may not be as concentrated as in a smaller bloom. Each algal bloom is unique in terms of size, toxicity and ultimately its impact on local communities. NOAA is actively developing tools to detect and predict how toxic blooms will be. 

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s (NCCOS) Lake Erie HAB Forecast website provides predictions and visualizations of the bloom’s location and movement on the lake’s surface, as well as where the bloom is located within the water column. This information is especially helpful to water treatment plant operators because intake structures are usually located below the surface, so the risk of toxins in their source water may be greater when these cells sink.

“NOAA’s Lake Erie HAB forecast continues to be an important tool to help inform decisions made by drinking water treatment plants, local governments, and individuals visiting Lake Erie’s shoreline and recreating on its waters,” said Christopher Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory. “Additionally, data collected before and during each bloom season continues to inform management decisions related to nutrient management and bloom response.”

NOAA’s Lake Erie HAB forecast in detail  

NOAA expects the start of a visible bloom by early July. The duration of the bloom depends on the frequency of high winds in September, which can’t be predicted this far in advance. Most of the bloom will remain in areas of the lake’s western basin. The central and eastern basins of the lake are usually unaffected until later in the season, although localized blooms may occur around some of the rivers after summer rainstorms. 

The range in forecasted severity reflects the uncertainty in forecasting precipitation, particularly for July. There is a small risk of a significant rainfall event over the next few weeks; if that occurs the increased river flow and nutrient load may lead to bloom severity near the top of the forecasted range. NOAA will issue a seasonal forecast update in late July based on observed nutrient loads in the western basin watershed. 

“The blooms in Lake Erie are changing. They are developing earlier over the past 10 years than previously, for reasons we do not yet understand,” said Richard Stumpf, NCCOS lead scientist for the seasonal Lake Erie bloom forecast. “An early start does not necessarily lead to a larger bloom, but it does mean the bloom lasts longer.”

To account for these changes, NOAA has updated the forecast model algorithms. For the last 10 years, the models used data from 2003-12 to inform Lake Erie HAB forecasts. This summer, those models are using data from 2013 to present, thereby improving the prediction of overall bloom severity.  

In addition to the early season projections, much like a five-day weather forecast, NOAA also issues HAB forecasts during the bloom season. These forecasts provide the current extent and five-day outlooks of where the bloom will travel and what blue-green algae concentrations are likely to be seen, allowing local authorities to make informed management decisions. NCCOS also routinely delivers a hypoxia forecast for Lake Erie’s central basin.

Nutrient load data for the forecasts came from Heidelberg University in Ohio, and the various forecast models are run by NCCOS, the University of Michigan, North Carolina State University, Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science. Field observations used for monitoring and modeling are done in partnership with a number of NOAA services, including its Ohio River Forecast Center, NCCOS, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, as well as Ohio Sea Grant, The Ohio State University’s Stone Laboratory, The University of Toledo and Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

Launched in 2019, the HEALing (Helping to End Addiction Long-Term) Communities Study (HCS) is the largest addiction prevention and treatment implementation study ever conducted. Researchers from the four participating states report today (June 16, 2024) in the New England Journal of Medicine and at the College on Problems of Drug Dependence (CPDD) annual meeting that the intervention did not result in a statistically significant reduction in opioid-related overdose death rates during the evaluation period. 

The data-driven intervention deployed evidence-based practices in 67 communities across states hit hard by the opioid crisis: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio. Though the goal to significantly reduce opioid overdose deaths was not met, Ohio implemented 137 evidence-based practice strategies in nine counties in Ohio. These strategies, implemented in complicated settings – hospital emergency departments and jails, to name just two – was an accomplishment that will have enduring positive effects, researchers say. 

“Implementing all of those evidence-based practices is the success,” said Bridget Freisthler, professor of social work at The Ohio State University and Ohio’s principal investigator for the HEALing Communities Study. “The practices are really about changing clinical care. The fact that many of those services are in place and are still working gives us some confidence that, going forward, these communities are going to be better prepared to address overdoses and overdose deaths. And hopefully they’ll see reductions over time.” 

T. John Winhusen, the HCS co-principal investigator for Ohio and director of the University of Cincinnati Center for Addiction Research, led the national group of experts convened to develop the Opioid-Overdose Reduction Continuum of Care Approach (ORCCA), a compendium of evidence-based practice strategies that guided the selection of interventions to be implemented in HCS intervention communities. 

ORCCA includes three “menus” of evidence-based practices: one devoted to overdose education and naloxone distribution, one focused on increasing exposure to medication for opioid use disorder, and a third focused on safer opioid prescribing. 

“ORCCA was designed to be flexible enough to meet the needs of a given community while also ensuring that strategies known to reduce opioid-related overdose deaths would be selected for implementation,” said Winhusen, also the Donald C. Harrison Endowed Chair in Medicine and professor and vice chair for addiction sciences in the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Neurosciences at UC.   

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) launched the four-year, multisite HCS to test a set of interventions for reducing overdose deaths across health care, justice and behavioral health settings. Over 100,000 people die annually of a drug overdose – 75% of which involve an opioid, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Numerous evidence-based practices have been proven to prevent or reverse opioid overdose, but are gravely underused due to numerous barriers, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA).  

Between January 2020 and June 2022, intervention communities successfully implemented 615 evidence-based practice strategies to address opioid-related overdose deaths – but only 235 were implemented before the study period comparing outcomes in intervention and control communities began. The authors of the NEJM article noted the COVID-19 pandemic, a short timeframe for implementing the interventions, and increased prevalence of fentanyl in the illicit drug market may have diminished the mortality impact of the intervention. 

The evidence-based practices compiled for the ORCCA covered a lot of ground and required a lot of coordination to launch. 

“Some of the strategies were major undertakings,” Winhusen said. “For example, working with a jail to start a buprenorphine treatment program is one strategy out of the 137 strategies implemented in Ohio. Another example was working with emergency departments to identify people with opioid use disorder, get them started on buprenorphine, and link them to ongoing buprenorphine treatment. 

“Due to both COVID-19 and time constraints, only 38% of the strategies were implemented before the start of the comparison period so you’re not going to see the full effects. It just wasn’t enough time.” 

Freisthler co-led the charge to engage community coalitions and help them consult data to select interventions best suited to the areas they served. The team also developed communications campaigns addressing a range of topics – the stigma linked to opioid misuse and to taking medications to combat opioid addiction, and the necessity of adopting evidence-based practices – that were among written materials that will help sustain Ohio’s participation in the initiative, all housed on an Ohio State HCS website. 

“Communities have been at the forefront of addressing opioid use and overdoses for years. A success of Ohio’s implementation is peer-to-peer learning and feedback about the evidence-based practice strategies. This effort moved the needle and what had been barriers to services in the past,” she said. “It takes a coordinated effort, and some might need help and expertise, but really, that piece showed that communities can be an agent of change in this process.” 

The Ohio consortium brought together experts from Ohio State, UC and four other universities – Case Western Reserve University, Ohio University, University of Toledo and Wright State University – as well as the community organizations and leaders from state agencies. 

Freisthler noted that ongoing engagement with the RecoveryOhio multi-agency initiative created by Gov. Mike DeWine was an enabling force behind many features of the HEALing Communities Study, including establishment of the State of Ohio Integrated Behavioral Health Dashboard of county statistics and trend data, as well as streamlined navigation of policy and communication challenges over the course of the study. 

Many U.S. states have access to national opioid settlement funds specifically designated to address the opioid epidemic. Winhusen said that several free products developed from the Opioid-Overdose Reduction Continuum of Care Approach, including a practice guide and a guide for policymakers, are “perfect for communities that are trying to decide how to wisely invest their opioid settlement dollars.” 

“Back in 2019, the four states convened top experts to discuss the scientific literature in order to develop this,” he said. “A great deal of time and effort went into reaching consensus on the strategies included in the ORCCA, and we would love to see communities use this resource to determine how best to invest their opioid settlement funds.” 

The HEALing Communities Study was supported and carried out in partnership between NIDA (see NIDA’s HCS press release on the NEJM article) and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration through the NIH HEAL Initiative. 

A $65.9 million NIH award funding Ohio State’s leadership of the Ohio portion of the study was housed in the university’s College of Medicine. Additional sites funded to conduct implementation research within communities in their state were the University of Kentucky, Lexington; Boston Medical Center, Boston; and Columbia University, New York City. RTI International, based in North Carolina, received an award to serve as the study’s data coordinating center.

The scientists from The Ohio State University have reported in the Journal of Medical Entomology on the state’s first known established population of Asian longhorned ticks, and are now conducting research focused on monitoring and managing these pests.

So far, these ticks are not deemed to be a threat to human health. They tend to favor large livestock and wildlife, such as cattle and deer. Just a handful of the hundred ticks from the farm screened for infectious agents tested positive for pathogens, including one, Anaplasma phagocytophilium, that can cause disease in animals and humans. Elsewhere this tick carries another pathogen, Theileria orientalis, that affects cattle, and cases of bovine theileriosis have been reported in Ohio. 

Researchers say the tiny brown ticks – the size of a sesame seed in some life stages and pea-sized when engorged – are persistent, however: Surveillance showed they returned the following summer to the farm despite the application of pesticides in 2021. 

“They are going to spread to pretty much every part of Ohio and they are going to be a long-term management problem. There is no getting rid of them,” said Risa Pesapane, senior author of the paper and an assistant professor of veterinary preventive medicine at Ohio State. 

“The good news about the ticks, though, is that most tick control agents that we currently have seem to kill them. Still, managing them is not easy because of how numerous they are and how easily they can come back.” 

Asian longhorned ticks originate from East Asia and were first detected in the United States in New Jersey in 2017. When Pesapane joined Ohio State in 2019 as a tick-borne disease ecologist, the ticks were reported in West Virginia – meaning it was only a matter of time before they crossed the river into Ohio, she said. 

She found the first of these ticks in Ohio, on a stray dog in Gallia County in 2020, and another was collected from a cow in Jackson County in June 2021. And then a farmer from Monroe County called Ohio State later that summer to report three of his 18 cattle, heavily infested with ticks, had died.

“One of those was a healthy male bull, about 5 years old. Enormous. To have been taken down by exsanguination by ticks, you can imagine that was tens of thousands of ticks on one animal,” said Pesapane, who also has a faculty appointment in Ohio State’s School of Environment and Natural Resources. 

Pesapane and colleagues collected almost 10,000 ticks within about 90 minutes on the farm, leading her to speculate that there were more than 1 million of them in the roughly 25-acre pasture. 

Asian longhorned ticks’ secret colonization weapon is the ability to reproduce asexually, with each female laying up to 2,000 eggs at a time – and all 2,000 of those female offspring able to do the same. 

“There are no other ticks in North America that do that. So they can just march on, with exponential growth, without any limitation of having to find a mate,” Pesapane said. “Where the habitat is ideal, and anecdotally it seems that unmowed pastures are an ideal location, there’s little stopping them from generating these huge numbers.”

Because of their ability to hide in vegetation, Asian longhorned ticks also can escape pesticides that kill only when coming into direct contact with a pest. 

“It would be wisest to target them early in the season when adults become active, before they lay eggs, because then you would limit how many will hatch and reproduce in subsequent years. But for a variety of reasons, I tell people you cannot spray your way out of an Asian longhorned tick infestation – it will require an integrated approach,” Pesapane said. 

She and colleagues are working as rapidly as they can at filling in knowledge gaps about these invaders and developing training materials and policy recommendations for affected industries. As one example, Pesapane said, tick inspections of livestock could provide a window for application of an antiparasitic agent to eliminate the risk of transporting the exotic arachnids across multiple state lines. 

Ohioans are encouraged to help with research efforts: People who think they’ve spotted an Asian longhorned tick can email ticks@osu.edu for instructions on how to collect the specimen and send it to Ohio State scientists as part of ongoing surveillance. To date, the lab has received Asian longhorned ticks from residents of 11 Ohio counties. 

More information about spotting Asian longhorned ticks and preventing tick exposure is available on Ohio State’s Bite Site hosted by the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences Knowledge Exchange. 

This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Co-authors on the study were Andreas Eleftheriou, Julia Beckett and Ningzhu Bai, all of Ohio State.

Researchers at The Ohio State University developed impacts-based thresholds for drought in Ohio, looking specifically at how corn yield and streamflow were affected by various drought indicators, such as notable changes in soil moisture, crops, and even livestock losses in the state.

The results suggest this impacts-based approach could give Ohio farmers earlier and more accurate notice when drought conditions are approaching, said Steven Quiring, co-author of the study and a professor of geography at Ohio State.

“We want to better understand what steps should be taken so that Ohio can better prepare for and also monitor the onset of drought conditions because a lot of the best ways to respond to drought is taking action early,” said Quiring. Moreover, with a more precise early warning system, agriculture producers might be able to save time and money by implementing water restrictions, or by switching to different or more drought-resistant crops.

The study was published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology. 

The Ohio State researchers compared how their method performed at predicting droughts with data from the U.S Drought Monitor (USDM). 

The problem with the USDM is that it uses fixed drought thresholds, or guidelines that use the same parameters to measure changes in all seasons and climate regions of the country. Unfortunately, this one-size-fits-all approach can cause monitoring plans to inaccurately gauge local weather conditions and how they impact those in certain communities, Quiring said.

By analyzing data from four drought indices commonly used in previous studies to monitor drought intensity across the United States, researchers were able to show that fixed thresholds tend to indicate milder drought conditions in Ohio than are indicated by the impacts-based thresholds identified in their study. 

It’s why Quiring and his team want to use the impacts-based method to revamp those thresholds to better reflect drought conditions in Ohio, a move that starts by updating The Ohio Emergency Management Agency’s state drought plan. 

To accomplish their goal, the researchers investigated how data from the four indices impacted streamflow, or how much water discharges over a designated point in a fixed period of time, and Ohio’s total corn yield, mainly because the crop covers an extensive area within the state, and nearly every county grows it. 

Identifying agricultural drought thresholds that are specific to Ohio is important, said Quiring. Because the impacts of drought can vary from region to region, using the same drought thresholds in California as in Ohio is absurd, he said. Additionally, the types of drought that occur can differ. Ohio, for example, in particular is prone to “flash droughts” — shortages caused by warm weather that can happen quickly over a few days or weeks. 

“These rapid-onset droughts can be particularly challenging for the agricultural community because they arrive quickly and conditions can rapidly go from normal to drier than normal,” said Quiring. “All of a sudden soil moisture is depleted, the crops are stressed and yield losses and impacts on the ecosystem occur.”  

The last time severe drought caused major losses in the United States was in 2012 when a record-breaking heat wave resulted in $34.2 billion in economic losses, 123 direct deaths and a 26% decrease in total corn crop yield across the country. 

As large areas of the country dried out, Ohio’s corn yield dropped from about 160 bushels per acre to 120 bushels per acre within a year. While such considerable losses have not happened since, according to the State Climate Office of Ohio, some areas of the state have experienced abnormally dry drought conditions this year.  

What’s more, the researchers’ impacts-based method of drought monitoring also takes into account how climate change can worsen flash drought events.

“One of the impacts that we found to be counterintuitive in Ohio is that with climate change, we do expect more rainfall overall, but we also expect to see more droughts because there are longer periods of time where no rain occurs,” said Quiring. 

The results of this study suggest that following guidelines that aren’t specific to a region’s issues can end up either systematically underestimating the impacts of severe drought conditions in some locations or overestimating them in others, Quiring said. 

While it’ll be some time before Quiring’s team can get their research incorporated into the next edition of the state drought plan, the study emphasizes that its methods could easily be applied to other regions beyond Ohio where long-term streamflow and crop yield data are readily available. Optimistically, it could help to improve drought monitoring worldwide and provide useful information to future agriculture producers and decision-makers, said Quiring. 

“This work is actually timely because it will provide a basis for decision-making in Ohio, rather than using research that’s been done in other parts of the country,” said Quiring. “Hopefully we can give better guidance to those who are making decisions on the ground.”

This study was supported by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Co-authors were Ning Zhang and Zhiying Li, who were both at Ohio State when the study was conducted. Zhang is now at the University of California, Davis and Li is at Indiana University.  

• Agencies continue to know more about the environmental factors that drive bloom toxin production, giving water treatment plant operators and recreational water managers better predictive capabilities.
• Researchers are working directly with state agencies and water treatment plant operators to optimize low-cost assessment and removal of cyanotoxins.
• Researchers working with the Ohio Department of Agriculture and producers have improved on-field management practices to help slow nutrient loss. New information about drainage systems/agricultural tiles and manure applications will help farmers make decisions about water management and soil health. 
• New information related to how water and nutrients move across the landscape has strengthened models that will help the Ohio Lake Erie Commission take further steps to evaluate H2Ohio and overall progress on nutrient reduction in the Maumee River watershed. 
• Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has modified its permit procedure to better safeguard Ohioans when HABRI projects showed that drinking water treatment residuals from treatment plants that took in contaminated source water may leach microcystins into produce and groundwater. 
• Research will assist the Ohio Department of Natural Resources H2Ohio Wetland Restoration Program to make informed decisions about optimizing and maintaining restored wetlands with enhanced capacity for nutrient reduction and resilience to extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts, etc.). 
• Researchers are collaborating with the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to test a new soil and water assessment tool (SWAT model) to quantify what effect rivers and streams have on phosphorus as it moves through the Maumee River watershed.
• Local and state health and environmental protection experts are benefiting from discoveries about the skin and inhalation algal toxin exposure risks for individuals with various pre-existing health conditions. Now the researchers are exploring preventive and treatment options.
• Researchers have developed new satellite-based tools that monitor algal blooms in inland waters. 
• Researchers obtained a patent for a needle sensor device that can quickly detect algal toxins in fish in the Great Lakes.
• HABRI continues to drive information sharing and priority setting between universities and agencies, positioning Ohio to better prevent and manage future crises.

“HABRI-funded research provides information to our agencies to make informed decisions about policy and keep Ohio residents safe,” said Ohio Lake Erie Commission Executive Director Joy Mulinex on behalf of Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and Ohio Department of Agriculture.

HABRI is funded by the Ohio Department of Higher Education, with $18.5 million made available since 2015. Matching funding from participating Ohio universities increases the total investment to more than $37 million, demonstrating the state’s overall commitment to addressing the harmful algal bloom issue. The state agencies that identify initiative priorities include the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, Ohio Department of Agriculture, Ohio Department of Health, the Ohio Lake Erie Commission and Ohio Department of Natural Resources. 

Final results from 12 projects funded from 2019-2021 make up this year’s report, in addition to one-year results of 19 projects funded in 2021. A new round of 12 projects were funded in 2022.

“Governor DeWine’s leadership through the H2Ohio program provides real promise in our efforts to address water quality issues. I’m pleased that Ohio’s colleges and universities continue to play a vital role in finding solutions to these problems,” said ODHE Chancellor Randy Gardner. “The Harmful Algal Bloom Research Initiative has been a collaborative problem-solving effort that uses our higher education assets to improve the quality of life for all Ohioans.”

HABRI comprises 97 expert research teams from Bowling Green State University, Central State University, Defiance College, Heidelberg University, Kent State University, Oberlin College, Sinclair Community College, The University of Akron, the University of Cincinnati, Miami University, Wright State University, and consortium leaders The University of Toledo and Ohio State. 

Information about HABRI projects, as well as partner organizations and background on the initiative, is also available on the Ohio Sea Grant website at go.osu.edu/habri. The report can be downloaded directly at http://ohioseagrant.osu.edu/p/nyhe8.

The Ohio Sea Grant Program is part of Ohio State’s College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences and NOAA Sea Grant, a network of 34 Sea Grant programs dedicated to the protection and sustainable use of marine and Great Lakes resources. For more information, visit ohioseagrant.osu.edu.

A new study analyzing toxins produced by Microcystis, the main type of cyanobacteria that compose the annual harmful algal bloom (HAB) in Lake Erie, suggests that the toxicity of the bloom may be overestimated in earlier warm months and underestimated later in the summer. 

The research is part of a large project, led by The Ohio State University, designed to develop a more accurate harmful algal bloom toxicity forecast for Lake Erie. 

The toxicity relates to the bloom’s concentration of the liver toxin microcystin, of which there are hundreds of varieties called congeners defined by very small molecular differences. The analysis showed that the toxicity level of the most common congeners found in Lake Erie relates strongly to nitrogen – when there is more nitrogen present in early warm months, dominant congeners tend to be of the less toxic variety. Later in the season, when nitrogen is nearly gone, the balance of dominant congeners changes to a more toxic type.

“The different levels of toxins will ultimately affect the toxicity and the human health impacts. We know that different populations are more sensitive to the toxins, especially those who have non-alcohol fatty liver disease,” said Justin Chaffin, senior researcher and research coordinator at Ohio State’s Stone Laboratory and lead author of the study. “Knowing which congeners are around can better inform beach management, better inform water treatment, and better inform those who need to avoid the water when they should avoid it.”

The research was published recently in the journal Harmful Algae. 

Lake Erie supplies drinking water to an estimated 11 million people in the United States and Canada, and the project led by Chaffin is geared toward developing toxicity forecasts that best prepare water treatment plant operators for the removal of microcystin. A high concentration of the toxin overwhelmed a Lake Erie water treatment plant in 2014, leading to the three-day Toledo drinking water crisis. 

But not all microcystin congeners are alike in terms of toxicity. The most abundant and most studied congener in Lake Erie, known as MC-LR, has been shown in recent research to be somewhere in the middle, in terms of toxicity, compared to other congeners in the lake’s bloom. In this study, Chaffin and colleagues set out to determine the location and abundance of these different congeners to get a better handle on toxicity trends over the busy summer season. 

The team collected samples at 15 sites stretching from Maumee Bay to the Central Basin from June through September in 2018 and 2019, focusing on identifying the concentration of specific microcystin congeners present over time and the changing nutrient levels in the water.

Along with the common MC-LR congener, two other congeners were found to dominate the microcystin populations: MC-RR, whose toxicity is about one-fifth of MC-LR, and MC-LA, estimated to be about 2 1/2 times more toxic than MC-LR. MC-RR, which is 17.5% nitrogen, was more dominant early in the season, when the water was rich in nitrogen, and MC-LA, which is 10.8% nitrogen, dominated later in the season, when nitrogen levels had substantially dipped – however, the total microcystin concentration was lower at that time as well, meaning overall toxicity may not have dramatically increased.

Detecting congeners doesn’t come easily – it requires highly sophisticated equipment and is more expensive than the analysis tool ELISA that’s routinely used to measure microcystins in the bloom – which is why current toxicity estimates are probably off, Chaffin said.

“Because ELISA measures overall concentration, basically you’re overestimating the toxicity in early summer when the majority of microcystins are a low-toxicity form, and then as summer progresses, the bloom is making more toxic forms, so you may be underestimating the toxicity,” he said. 

An investment in routinely gathering congener data could improve modeling efforts to predict how the toxicity of the HAB in Lake Erie changes each year. Chaffin co-authored another recent study that showed using data on toxin concentrations (from existing ELISA measurements that don’t take congeners into account), water currents and a bloom’s increase in toxin production in a one-week weather map-like simulation improved the accuracy of microcystin forecasting by 79%. 

“We took all the data we could find and put it in a hydrodynamic model and ran it under simulations,” Chaffin said. “So if you know where the toxins are today and make a map of the bloom like a weather map, you can watch where it’s going to go in the next seven days. And if you add biology data to the simulation, you can get a better prediction of where the highest toxin concentrations will be. 

“The next step would be to merge the bloom location and toxin concentration forecast with different congeners so we could really forecast the toxicity of the bloom. But lab capabilities would need to be improved to make that possible.”

Stone Lab is housed in the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences School of Environment and Natural Resources.

This project is funded by the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, with additional support provided by the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation. 

Pengfei Xue, professor of civil, environmental and geospatial engineering at Michigan Technological University, was senior author of the modeling study published in the Journal of Great Lakes Research. Co-authors of the Harmful Algae study include Judy Westrick of Wayne State University, Laura Reitz of Bowling Green State University (now at the University of Michigan) and Thomas Bridgeman of the University of Toledo.

Ohio Sea Grant and The Ohio State University Stone Laboratory hosted a live web event today featuring NOAA’s official annual seasonal HABs forecast for the lake and highlights of recent related research efforts.

This year’s bloom is expected to measure 3, with a potential range of 2-4.5 on the severity index – whereas last year’s bloom was measured at a 6.8.

The index is based on the bloom’s biomass – the amount of algae – during the peak 30 days of the bloom. An index above 5 indicates more severe blooms. Blooms over 7 are particularly severe, with extensive scum formation and coverage affecting the lake. The largest blooms occurred in 2011, with a severity index of 10, and 2015, with a severity index of 10.5.

“The harmful algal bloom forecast translates the latest science into actionable information for our partners and the public,” said NOAA Chief Scientist Sarah Kapnick. “As we move into the summer season, having accurate, reliable information about this year’s expected bloom will help protect public health and economic activity for communities along Lake Erie.”

Lake Erie HABs consisting of cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, are capable of producing microcystin, a known liver toxin that poses a risk to human and wildlife health. Such blooms may force cities and local governments to treat drinking water or close beaches, and can harm vital local economies by preventing people from fishing, swimming, boating and visiting the shoreline.

The size of a bloom isn’t necessarily an indication of how toxic it is. For example, the toxins in a large bloom may not be as concentrated as in a smaller bloom. Each algal bloom is unique in terms of size, toxicity and, ultimately, its impact on local communities.

“By consistently improving the science behind our forecasts, we’re giving Great Lakes communities the information they need to plan for blooms of varying severity,” said NOAA’s National Ocean Service Director Nicole LeBoeuf. “Understanding and addressing hazards such as harmful algal blooms can help us ensure that the Great Lakes are an engine of the blue economy.”

The National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s (NCCOS) Lake Erie HAB Forecast website provides predictions and visualizations of the bloom’s location and movement on the lake’s surface, as well as where the bloom is located within the water column. This information is especially helpful to water treatment plant operators, because intake structures are usually located below the surface, so the risk of toxins in their source water may be greater when these cells sink.

“NCCOS’s Lake Erie HAB forecast continues to be a valuable resource for Lake Erie residents, visitors and the state,” said Christopher Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory. “This NOAA forecast and the research being conducted by academic institutions and both state and federal agencies to understand blooms and nutrient runoff will continue to guide efforts to address these summer bloom events.”

Forecast details 

NOAA expects a start of the visible bloom in mid- to late July. The duration of the bloom depends on the frequency of wind events in September, which cannot be predicted this far in advance. The bloom will remain mostly in areas of the lake’s western basin. The central and eastern basins of the lake are usually unaffected, although localized blooms may occur around some of the rivers after summer rainstorms.

The range in forecasted severity reflects the uncertainty in forecasting precipitation, particularly for July. Larger rain events during the summer could result in increased river flow and a higher severity index. NOAA will issue a seasonal forecast update in early August based on observed rainfall in the western basin watershed.

"While this spring has been quite dry, the lake received a large nutrient load in March, which will produce at least a mild bloom this summer,” said Richard Stumpf, NCCOS’s lead scientist for the seasonal Lake Erie bloom forecast. “However, like recent years, we have a potential of additional nutrient load in July, which could lead to a moderate bloom."

The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA Ecological Forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers, public health officials and the public. In addition to the early season projections from NOAA and its partners, NOAA also issues HAB forecasts during the bloom season. These forecasts provide the current extent and five-day outlooks of where the bloom will travel and what concentrations are likely to be seen, allowing local decision makers to make informed management decisions. NOAA is actively developing tools to detect and predict how toxic blooms will be.

Nutrient load data for the forecasts came from Heidelberg University in Ohio, and the various forecast models are run by NCCOS, the University of Michigan, North Carolina State University, LimnoTech, Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science. Field observations used for monitoring and modeling are done in partnership with a number of NOAA services, including its Ohio River Forecast Center, NCCOS, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, as well as Ohio Sea Grant, The Ohio State University’s Stone Laboratory, The University of Toledo and Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

An initiative called the “HABS Grab,” conducted by an international team of researchers, has provided the most accurate estimates to date of where and how much of the liver toxin microcystin might be present during a seasonal bloom.

The 100 and 172 water samples “grabbed” in one-day outings a year apart suggested there were about 12 tons of microcystins – the toxins that can be produced by cyanobacteria– in the lake on a single day in 2018, and over 30 tons in the western basin on one day in 2019.

Beyond reaching those estimates, the team found that the concentration of the toxins fluctuated over short distances, and less than a quarter of all of the Microcystis, the most common cyanobacteria genus in Lake Erie, were actually capable of toxin production. In addition, findings suggested using chlorophyll as a proxy measure for the presence of microcystin may not be as reliable as previously thought.

“Those issues can only be overcome with more frequent data collection,” said Justin Chaffin, senior researcher and research coordinator at The Ohio State University’s Stone Laboratory and lead author of the study.

“We have good biomass data from satellites, so we can see where the bloom is and how thick it is, but there’s never a direct link between bloom biomass and how much toxin there is in the water. To measure the toxin you have to be out on a boat grabbing a sample.”

The research is published online in the journal Harmful Algae.

The HABS Grab principal funder, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), annually forecasts the summer harmful algal bloom in Lake Erie, basing predictions on data derived from high-quality satellite imagery.

Microcystis is the main type of cyanobacteria that compose the HAB in Lake Erie, and it can produce high amounts of microcystins, which can pose risks to human and wildlife health. A dangerously high concentration of the toxin overwhelmed a Lake Erie water treatment plant in 2014, leading to the three-day Toledo drinking water crisis.

Lake Erie supplies drinking water to an estimated 11 million people in the United States and Canada – and for that reason alone, not to mention the lake’s recreational uses and economic benefits – it’s important to have a better handle on the toxicity of the annual bloom, Chaffin said.

“Obviously, we don’t want toxins in there,” he said. “Stepping further away, we’re understanding how blooms occur in lakes and their spatial distribution, and the physiology that causes cyanobacteria to produce microcystins.

“We wanted to take the HABS Grab approach to quantify microcystins in a way that might help us eventually estimate its concentrations from day to day or week to week.”

The two grabs took place on Aug. 9, 2018, and Aug. 7, 2019. On each of those days, 40 or so scientists – a U.S. team in 2018 and a joint U.S.-Canadian effort in 2019 – boarded boats to collect water samples across the western basin, covering roughly 880 square miles. Back in their labs, researchers analyzed the samples’ contents for nutrients, toxins, pigments and cyanobacterial DNA.

In 2018, the highest detected microcystin concentrations of between 2 to 5 micrograms per liter were found in water hugging the Ohio shoreline and surrounding the Bass Islands. In contrast, the highest concentrations of between 15 and 50 micrograms per liter were measured in Maumee Bay in 2019 – but in the same year, microcystins were below detectable levels near the Detroit River outflow and around the Bass Islands.

According to Ohio Environmental Protection Agency standards, treated drinking water should contain no more than 1.6 micrograms of microcystin per liter for adults and 0.3 micrograms per liter of the toxin for children. Water treatment plants monitor for microcystins, but Chaffin said that in an ideal scenario, scientists could tell plant operators when and at what concentration microcystins will be present in advance of the bloom reaching their intake.

The authors noted that the 12- and 30-ton biomass estimates of toxins in the blooms are largely a function of how big the western basin is. They estimated the basin-wide average concentration of microcystins at 0.52 and 1.38 micrograms per liter in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and noted that the concentrations detected in the HABS Grab samples varied by nearly two orders of magnitude over very short distances.

Less helpful was the finding that the microcystin-to-chlorophyll ratio varied widely throughout the western basin, indicating that incorrect water treatment decisions could be made if they rely solely on chlorophyll.

There are even potential bright spots, Chaffin said: The location of the toxins aligned with water currents, indicating that water currents can be used to forecast where those toxins will be transported, and the microcystin-to-chlorophyll ratio increased with nitrogen concentrations, suggesting nitrogen affects how much toxin a cyanobacteria cell can produce.

“We really needed a high-spatial-resolution toxin dataset so we can compare it to the satellites and see, within one day, what the relationship is between toxins and bloom biomass,” Chaffin said. “What we found is that the relationship between toxins and biomass even on one day is not consistent across the lake.”

The HABS Grab was an enormous undertaking and hasn’t been repeated since 2019. But the team hopes this study lays the groundwork for future data collection to broaden understanding of how toxins circulate during the annual harmful algal bloom and to bolster work to reduce related health risks.

“In order to be sure we implement the right strategies to protect the public and ecosystem health, we need to know as much information as we can, and one of the key pieces of information comes from this kind of sampling,” said Felix Martinez, a program manager for the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science. “If a really comprehensive dataset could be developed, taking a snapshot at different points in time over the bloom season, that might give us a better idea of how to predict conditions for a given year.”

In the meantime, the researchers are continuing to analyze the samples for purposes ranging from characterizing microbial communities in the water to ecosystem modeling.

Co-authors on the study include Halli Bair (now a graduate student at Ohio University) and Keara Stanislawczyk of Ohio State, and scientists from multiple universities and environmental agencies in the United States, Canada and China.

In addition to funding from NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, the work was supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Great Lakes Program and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The 2021 forecast was announced today (June 30) during a live web event hosted by Stone Laboratory and Ohio Sea Grant at The Ohio State University.

This year’s bloom is expected to measure 3, with a potential range of 2 - 4.5, out of 10 on the severity index – among the smaller blooms since 2011 – whereas last year’s bloom was measured at a 3. The index is based on the bloom’s biomass – the amount of algae – during the peak 30 days of the bloom.

An index above 5 indicates more severe blooms. Blooms over 7 are particularly severe, with extensive scum formation and coverage affecting the lake. The largest blooms occurred in 2011, with a severity index of 10, and 2015, exceeding the scale and measuring at a severity index of 10.5.

Lake Erie blooms consisting of cyanobacteria, also called blue-green algae, are capable of producing microcystin, a known liver toxin, which poses a risk to human and wildlife health. Such blooms may result in economic impacts for cities and local governments that are forced to treat drinking water, close beaches and prevent people from enjoying fishing, swimming, boating and visiting the shoreline, and harm the region’s vital summer economy. These effects will vary in location and severity due to winds that may concentrate or dissipate the bloom.

“Communities along Lake Erie rely upon clean, healthy water to support their community’s well-being and economic livelihoods,” said Paul Scholz, acting deputy director for NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “The Lake Erie harmful algal bloom forecast is another example of NOAA’s ongoing efforts to provide timely, science-based information to water managers and public health officials as they make decisions to protect their communities and visitors.”

The size of a bloom isn’t necessarily an indication of how toxic it is. For example, the toxins in a large bloom may not be as concentrated as in a smaller bloom. Each algal bloom is unique in terms of size, toxicity and ultimately its impact on local communities. NOAA is actively developing tools to detect and predict how toxic blooms will be.

Bloom expected to be later and more patchy

With cool lake temperatures in May and early June, the cyanobacteria are currently present only at low concentrations. NOAA expects a more typical start of the visible bloom in mid- to late July. While the bloom typically produces some toxins, the level of toxicity of the bloom when it starts cannot be predicted. Even with a small bloom, calm winds tend to allow the bloom to form patchy scums that can concentrate toxins near the lake’s surface, and possibly near the shore. The duration of the bloom depends on the frequency of September wind events, which cannot be predicted this far in advance.

The bloom will remain mostly in areas of the Western basin. The Central and Eastern basins of the lake are usually unaffected, although localized blooms may occur around some of the rivers after summer rainstorms.

“Thanks to our partnerships with governmental agencies, academia and state research initiatives like the Ohio Department of Higher Education’s Harmful Algal Bloom Research Initiative and Governor DeWine’s H2Ohio initiative, we are continuing to address the challenges of harmful algal blooms from all angles, ranging from providing Ohioans with safe drinking water and studying toxin impacts on human health and food safety, to nutrient runoff prevention,” said Christopher Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory.

The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA Ecological Forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers, public health officials and the public. In addition to the early season projections from NOAA and its partners, NOAA also issues HAB nowcasts/forecasts during the bloom season. These forecasts provide the current extent and five-day outlooks of where the bloom will travel and what concentrations are likely to be seen, allowing local decision-makers to make informed management decisions.

“Both last year and this year, relatively mild rainfall in the spring has led to less phosphorus being carried into the lake, which means smaller blooms,” said Richard Stumpf, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s lead scientist for the seasonal Lake Erie bloom forecast. “While this is good news, the concentration of phosphorus still remains the same as recent years. Until we begin to see reductions in the concentration of phosphorus, the next year with above-average rainfall will have a more severe bloom.”

Gathering data, refining models

NOAA now routinely uses high-quality satellite imagery from both of the European Union’s Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellites, which were designed to detect blooms in large lakes and estuaries. While this imagery is critical to the forecast model, it only shows how concentrated the algal bloom is on the surface of the lake. The cells that cause the bloom can float and sink in the water, allowing them to move to sunlight near the surface and collect nutrients through the water column.

The newly updated Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast website provides more accurate predictions and visualizations of where the bloom is located within the water column. This information is especially of interest to water treatment plant operators because intake structures are usually located below the surface, so the risk of toxins in their source water may be greater when these cells sink.

Nutrient load data for the forecasts came from Heidelberg University in Ohio, and the various forecast models are run by NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, the University of Michigan, North Carolina State University, LimnoTech, Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science. Field observations used for monitoring and modeling are done in partnership with a number of NOAA services, including its Ohio River Forecast Center, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, and Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, as well as Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory at Ohio State, The University of Toledo and Ohio EPA.

Lake Erie blooms consist of cyanobacteria, also called blue-green algae, capable of producing the liver toxin microcystin, which poses a risk to human and wildlife health. Such blooms may result in higher costs for cities and local governments that need to treat drinking water; prevent people from enjoying fishing, swimming, boating and visiting the shoreline; and harm the region’s vital summer economy. These effects will vary in location and severity due to winds that may concentrate or dissipate the bloom.

“A smaller bloom forecast for Lake Erie and the surrounding coastal communities is encouraging, but we cannot be complacent,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “It is our hope that these science-based tools will help local leaders plan for the predicted bloom and best position the community and its visitors to deal with what comes."

The severity index is based on the bloom's biomass – the amount of algae – over a sustained period. The largest blooms occurred in 2011, with a severity index of 10, and 2015, at 10.5. NOAA, the Environmental Protection Agency, Environment and Climate Change Canada and its other partners have set a goal of 3, which was last seen in 2012.

The size of a bloom isn’t necessarily an indication of how toxic it is. For example, the toxins in a large bloom may not be as concentrated as in a smaller bloom. Each algal bloom is unique in terms of size, toxicity and ultimately its impact on local communities. NOAA is actively developing tools to detect and predict how toxic blooms will be.

Bloom expected in late July

With cool lake temperatures in May and early June, the cyanobacteria only started growing in the last week. NOAA expects a more typical start of the visible bloom in mid to late July. The extremely high lake levels are not expected to have a significant effect on the bloom size. While the bloom typically produces some toxins, it is too early to predict how toxic the bloom will be when it starts. However, calm winds tend to allow the algal toxins to concentrate near the lakes’ surface. The duration of the bloom depends on how windy September may be, which cannot be predicted this far in advance. The bloom will remain mostly in some areas of the western basin, and most of the rest of the lake will not be affected.

“The expectation of a smaller bloom than 2019 is clearly something we should welcome. Nevertheless, we still have work to do,” said Christopher Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory. “Thankfully, the support of Governor DeWine to address water quality issues through the H2Ohio initiative and the research being funded through the Ohio Department of Higher Education’s Harmful Algal Bloom Research Initiative are important parts of that work. Additionally, we are fortunate that Ohio has capitalized on productive working relationships between our state agencies and our research institutions. Addressing nutrient loading and harmful algal blooms clearly demands an ‘all-hands-on-deck’ approach.”

The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA ecological forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers and the public. In addition to the early season projections from NOAA and its partners, NOAA also issues HAB forecasts during the bloom season. These forecasts provide the current extent and five-day outlooks of where the bloom will travel and what concentrations are likely to be seen, allowing managers to determine whether to take preventive actions.

“The mild rainfall this spring compared to last year will lead to a much smaller bloom,” said Richard Stumpf, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s lead scientist for the seasonal Lake Erie bloom forecast. “While the bloom this year probably will not be as mild as in 2018, we still expect to see large areas without substantial effects. This depends on where the bloom gets pushed by the wind, so anyone using the lake needs to regularly check the location of the bloom.”

Gathering data, refining models

NOAA is now routinely using the high quality satellite imagery from both of European Union’s Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellites, which were designed to detect blooms in large lakes and estuaries. The cells that cause the bloom can float and sink in the water, allowing them to collect nutrients through the water and get to sunlight near the surface. This information is especially of interest to water treatment plant operators because intake structures are usually located below the surface, so the risk of toxins in their raw water may be greater when these cells sink.

This year’s forecast includes an improved model that provides more accurate predictions and visualizations of where the bloom is located within the water column. View the new visualization on the updated Lake Erie harmful algal bloom forecast website.

Nutrient load data for the forecasts came from Heidelberg University. The various forecast models are run by NOAA’s NCCOS, the University of Michigan, North Carolina State University, LimnoTech, Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science. Field observations used for monitoring and modeling are done in partnership with a number of NOAA services, including its Ohio River Forecast Center, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, and Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, as well as Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory at The Ohio State University, University of Toledo and Ohio EPA.

OSU Extension is the community-based outreach unit of the College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences at Ohio State, delivering knowledge to every county in Ohio. Its four major program areas are family and consumer sciences, 4-H youth development, community development, and agriculture and natural resources.

In recent years, Extension has invested in the technology needed to facilitate effective teleworking, and employees will use those resources to remain engaged with Ohioans. Clients, stakeholders and other community members should continue to connect with Extension staff members via phone or email as usual.

All staff will serve local clientele through normal office hours (as previously determined by each county), and they will remain accountable for program management needs.

Most Extension-planned activities through April 20 are now postponed, scheduled to be held virtually or canceled.

The university is monitoring guidance and best practices from local, state and federal agencies and will share updates or modifications as information become available.

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The National Institutes of Health today announced when interventions will begin in the communities in Ohio and three other states that are participating in the HEALing Communities Study, which aims to reduce overdose deaths by 40% over three years.

In April, the NIH awarded a $65.9 million grant to The Ohio State University to lead a consortium of academic, state and community partners on the Ohio portion of the study. The study involves 19 counties across Ohio and the state’s RecoveryOhio initiative.

The HEALing Communities Study will determine how best to address the opioid epidemic through prevention, treatment and recovery. To assess the effectiveness of different interventions, the study will compare results between communities. To make these comparisons, participating communities were randomly assigned using a scientific algorithm to start these interventions either in December 2019 (Wave 1) or December 2021 (Wave 2).

Ohio’s HEALing Communities Study team will move forward quickly to help these counties battle the opioid crisis,” said lead investigator Dr. Rebecca Jackson, director of Ohio State’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science and associate dean for clinical research in the College of Medicine. “Communities in both waves will benefit. The first wave will benefit from immediate intervention, and we will apply the lessons learned to deliver the most effective, targeted assistance to the communities in the second wave.”

Throughout the project, all participating communities will continue to get all the other treatment and prevention resources and services that they would otherwise receive. All participating communities are at the leading edge of an unprecedented, life-saving national initiative.

• The 10 counties in the first wave are: Ashtabula, Athens, Cuyahoga, Darke, Greene, Guernsey, Hamilton, Lucas, Morrow and Scioto.
• The nine counties in the second wave are: Allen, Brown, Franklin, Huron, Jefferson, Ross, Stark, Williams and Wyandot.

The Ohio consortium brings together experts from six universities — Ohio State, University of Cincinnati, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio University, University of Toledo and Wright State University — and leaders from state agencies and community organizations.

Along with Dr. Jackson, the Ohio portion of the study is led by Theresa Winhusen, professor of psychiatry and behavioral neuroscience at the University of Cincinnati, director of the Addiction Sciences Division and principal investigator of the Ohio Valley Node in the NIDA Clinical Trials Network.

“The HEALing Communities Study is critically important for its potential to address the opioid epidemic, including reducing opioid overdose deaths, through the wide-spread implementation of evidence-based practices,” said Winhusen.

“Only by partnering with communities can we facilitate the processes of getting what works into the hands of those doing the work and supporting those already using these practices to improve the lives of those touched by the opioid epidemic, achieving a long-term solution to addiction,” she said. “If found to be successful, this study could serve as a model for addressing emerging public health crises.”

At Ohio State, more than three dozen faculty members are participating in the initiative. They represent the colleges of Medicine, Pharmacy, Public Health, Public Affairs, Social Work, Nursing, Education and Human Ecology, Engineering, Arts and Sciences, and Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. The Wexner Medical Center, the Center for Clinical and Translational Science, the Translational Data Analytics Institute and Ohio State Extension are also involved in the initiative.

The HEALing Communities Study is funded and supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse, part of the National Institutes of Health, in partnership with the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.

For more information on the study, see https://heal.nih.gov/research/research-to-practice/healing-communities.

That sense of obligation was a driving force behind the collaborative approach to Ohio State’s proposal for a HEALing Communities Study grant, said lead investigator Rebecca Jackson, director of Ohio State’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science and associate dean for clinical research in the College of Medicine.

With the $65.9 million federal research grant awarded in April, Ohio State is leading a consortium of academic, state and community partners that aims to reduce overdose deaths by 40 percent over three years. Ohio’s overdose death rate stands at 39.2 deaths per 100,000 people, compared to the national average rate of 14.6 deaths per 100,000 people.

The proposal centers around identifying data-driven, custom-designed response strategies to treat addiction. The coalition plans to implement evidence-based prevention and treatment interventions in a variety of settings, providing professionals on the front lines of the opioid crisis with real-time information about the most effective approaches.

“Rather than the traditional research top-down model where we drive intervention … this is truly a community-driven process in order to understand ways to more effectively address the opioid crisis,” said Jackson, presenting to the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center Board of Trustees last week. “We think the lessons learned here will actually help reduce opioid use disorder and opioid use fatalities … across every state in the country and potentially the world.”

The federally funded study joins a long list of Ohio State prevention, treatment and support initiatives.

The College of Pharmacy has encouraged responsible use of prescription medications since before opioid misuse and overdose deaths emerged as a crisis. The college established the Generation Rx program in 2007, which to date has educated more than 2 million people about drug misuse prevention through a train-the-trainer structure.

Andrew Thomas, Wexner Medical Center’s chief medical officer, told the board about modified practices in prescribing medications, treating pain and supporting patients with addiction that show “the new seriousness and new focus our providers have taken on this issue over the last few years.”

Between 2015 and 2018, the medical center reduced the amount of opiates prescribed per discharged patient by 66 percent, and cut the percentage of patients discharged with opioid prescriptions by about 17 percent, even as admissions increased.

Thomas said Ohio State is a national leader in reducing opioid treatment for surgical patients through a program emphasizing pre-operative diet and exercise education and the use of non-opiate, non-addictive pain interventions during and after surgery. The program has reduced post-op opiate prescriptions between 27 percent and 60 percent across four specialties – with no drop in pain management patient satisfaction scores.

This approach extends to the Healthy State Alliance launched last fall by Wexner Medical Center and Mercy Health. Anderson Hospital in Cincinnati is poised to implement the program for orthopedic joint replacements, Thomas said.

Thomas also described a number of overdose prevention measures, which include drug treatment for inpatients who arrive with an opioid overuse disorder and sending naloxone nasal spray kits home with emergency patients. Pregnant patients who are addicted to opiates can access obstetric care and drug treatment in the same clinic setting.

On the research front, Ohio State health researchers are partnering with the Ohio Development Services Agency on a $5 million collaborative to explore innovative pain treatment techniques such as a topical non-opioid cream. But scholarship on the epidemic is not restricted to health disciplines.

Faculty from sociology, geography and political science are examining the “dark web” drug market, neighborhood factors behind addiction and citizen education on the crisis, respectively. They discussed their research at a March event highlighting differing approaches to addressing the opioid epidemic.

The university also centrally supports a wide range of research projects. Since 2017, the Opioid Innovation Fund created by Executive Vice President and Provost Bruce A. McPheron has distributed nearly $1 million to 16 projects serving one of two goals: to develop products that community partners can use right away or to answer research questions that inform the scientific community, practitioners and policymakers.

The models show that adding lithium-ion batteries to a regional airplane could reduce that airplane’s fuel needs by up to 20 percent, the researchers said.

The team presented the findings last week at the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Electric Aircraft Technologies Symposium in Indianapolis.

“We are working on ways to make air travel less carbon-intensive,” said Marcello Canova, a co-presenter and associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Ohio State. “Lithium-ion batteries, including the technology that is commercially available today, appear to be a promising option.”

The research is conducted under NASA’s University Leadership Initiative program, and focuses on evaluating the trade-offs between fuel savings and a battery pack’s size, weight and costs, while also including the carbon impact of the electricity necessary to recharge the battery pack. The models and tools developed were a joint effort between researchers at Ohio State and Georgia Institute of Technology, and could help airplane and airplane battery designers better understand how an aircraft’s design affects its ability to be powered by a battery.

In preliminary designs, the researchers focused on lithium-ion battery packs that could supplement the power produced by the engines of a regional jet – one traveling 600 or fewer miles, carrying 50 to 100 passengers.

Their model showed in tests that a battery has the ability to power about 30 percent of the total power required for an airplane to climb to cruising altitude, and about 20 percent of the power required to cruise.

That could reduce levels of carbon dioxide – a primary driver of climate change – that airplanes contribute to the atmosphere. Air travel contributes about 2 percent of the carbon dioxide humans put into Earth’s atmosphere, according to the Air Transit Action Group. This research team, led by Ohio State and four other universities, has been funded by NASA to find new, less carbon-intensive ways to power air travel.

“Our team is focusing on evaluating the feasibility and economics of introducing lithium-ion batteries to air travel,” Canova said. “And we’re working on the ways to make that safe and reliable.”

Their work also considers how to make batteries for air travel more efficient. Batteries that power automobiles differ from those that help power airplanes, Canova said: Airplane batteries must abide by more-strict weight, safety, durability and reliability standards.

But batteries deteriorate with use, offering less power over time and decreasing the range an airplane can travel. That deterioration also means less power is available to help an airplane accelerate and reach its maximum speed. Temperature affects batteries, as well.

To lay the groundwork for a better battery, Canova said, the team built a computer model of an electro-thermal battery pack and added an algorithm that simulated the effects of time and use on batteries. Then they tested to see how that model performed after repeated use and under various temperatures.

The team planned for the battery to be used for six flights per day, and calculated the power necessary for takeoff, climbing, cruising, landing and taxiing to the runway. They allotted one hour between flights to charge the battery pack, and assumed that the pack could be used for two years, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

They found that a battery pack’s performance is limited by capacity fade, a term used to describe energy loss in a battery over time. And they found that time, not use, is the main driver of battery deterioration.

What they developed, Canova said, is essentially a tool that can be used to predict the effect stressors such as aging and use might have on a lithium-ion battery powering a regional aircraft, which is a very important factor when evaluating costs and benefits of introducing this technology in air travel.

But in recently published research, a team of astronomers at The Ohio State University showed that the survey, nicknamed TESS, could also be used to monitor a particular type of supernova, giving scientists more clues about what causes white dwarf stars to explode—and about the elements those explosions leave behind.

“We have known for years that these stars explode, but we have terrible ideas of why they explode,” said Patrick Vallely, lead author of the study and an Ohio State astronomy graduate student. “The big thing here is that we are able to show that this supernova isn’t consistent with having a white dwarf (take mass) directly from a standard star companion and explode into it—the kind of standard idea that had led to people trying to find hydrogen signatures in the first place. That is, because the TESS light curve doesn’t show any evidence of the explosion slamming into the surface of a companion, and because the hydrogen signatures in the SALT spectra don’t evolve like the other elements, we can rule out that standard model.”

Their research, detailed in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, represents the first published findings about a supernova observed using TESS, and add new insights to long-held theories about the elements left behind after a white dwarf star explodes into a supernova.

Those elements have long troubled astronomers.

A white dwarf explodes into a specific type of supernova, a 1a, after gathering mass from a nearby companion star and growing too big to remain stable, astronomers believe. But if that is true, then the explosion should, astronomers have theorized, leave behind trace elements of hydrogen, a crucial building block of stars and the entire universe. (White dwarf stars, by their nature, have already burned through their own hydrogen and so would not be a source of hydrogen in a supernova.)

But until this TESS-based observation of a supernova, astronomers had never seen those hydrogen traces in the explosion’s aftermath: This supernova is the first of its type in which astronomers have measured hydrogen. That hydrogen, first reported by a team from the Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, could change the nature of what astronomers know about white dwarf supernovae.

“The most interesting thing about this particular supernova is the hydrogen we saw in its spectra (the elements the explosion leaves behind),” Vallely said. “We’ve been looking for hydrogen and helium in the spectra of this type of supernova for years—those elements help us understand what caused the supernova in the first place.”

The hydrogen could mean that the white dwarf consumed a nearby star. In that scenario, the second star would be a normal star in the middle of its lifespan—not a second white dwarf. But when astronomers measured the light curve from this supernova, the curve indicated that the second star was in fact a second white dwarf. So where did the hydrogen come from?

Professor of Astronomy Kris Stanek, Vallely’s adviser at Ohio State and a co-author on this paper, said it is possible that the hydrogen came from a companion star—a standard, regular star—but he thinks it is more likely that the hydrogen came from a third star that happened to be near the exploding white dwarf and was consumed in the supernova by chance.

“We would think that because we see this hydrogen, it means that the white dwarf consumed a second star and exploded, but based on the light curve we saw from this supernova, that might not be true,” Stanek said.

“Based on the light curve, the most likely thing that happened, we think, is that the hydrogen might be coming from a third star in the system,” Stanek added. “So the prevailing scenario, at least at Ohio State right now, is that the way to make a Type Ia (pronounced 1-A) supernova is by having two white dwarf stars interacting—colliding even. But also having a third star that provides the hydrogen.”

For the Ohio State research, Vallely, Stanek and a team of astronomers from around the world combined data from TESS, a 10-centimeter-diameter telescope, with data from the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN for short.) ASAS-SN is led by Ohio State and is made up of small telescopes around the world watching the sky for supernovae in far-away galaxies.

TESS, by comparison, is designed to search the skies for planets in our nearby galaxy—and to provide data much more quickly than previous satellite telescopes. That means that the Ohio State team was able to use data from TESS to see what was happening around the supernova in the first moments after it exploded—an unprecedented opportunity.

The team combined data from TESS and ASAS-SN with data from the South African Large Telescope to evaluate the elements left behind in the supernova’s wake. They found both hydrogen and helium there, two indicators that the exploding star had somehow consumed a nearby companion star.

“What is really cool about these results is, when we combine the data, we can learn new things,” Stanek said. “And this supernova is the first exciting case of that synergy.”

The supernova this team observed was a Type Ia, a type of supernova that can occur when two stars orbit one another—what astronomers call a binary system. In some cases of a Type I supernova, one of those stars is a white dwarf.

A white dwarf has burned off all its nuclear fuel, leaving behind only a very hot core. (White dwarf temperatures exceed 100,000 degrees Kelvin—nearly 200,000 degrees Fahrenheit.) Unless the star grows bigger by stealing bits of energy and matter from a nearby star, the white dwarf spends the next billion years cooling down before turning into a lump of black carbon.

But if the white dwarf and another star are in a binary system, the white dwarf slowly takes mass from the other star until, eventually, the white dwarf explodes into a supernova.

Type I supernovae are important for space science—they help astronomers measure distance in space, and help them calculate how quickly the universe is expanding (a discovery so important that it won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2011.)

“These are the most famous type of supernova—they led to dark energy being discovered in the 1990s,” Vallely said. “They are responsible for the existence of so many elements in the universe. But we don’t really understand the physics behind them that well. And that’s what I really like about combining TESS and ASAS-SN here, that we can build up this data and use it to figure out a little more about these supernovae.”

Scientists broadly agree that the companion star leads to a white dwarf supernova, but the mechanism of that explosion, and the makeup of the companion star, are less clear.

This finding, Stanek said, provides some evidence that the companion star in this type of supernova is likely another white dwarf.

“We are seeing something new in this data, and it helps our understanding of the Ia supernova phenomenon,” he said. “And we can explain this all in terms of the scenarios we already have—we just need to allow for the third star in this case to be the source of the hydrogen.”

ASAS-SN is supported by Las Cumbres Observatory and funded in part by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the National Science Foundation, the Mt. Cuba Astronomical Foundation, the Center for Cosmology and AstroParticle Physics at Ohio State, the Chinese Academy of Sciences South American Center for Astronomy and the Villum Fonden in Denmark.

This year’s bloom is expected to measure 7.5 on the severity index, but could range between 6 and 9. An index above 5 indicates blooms having greater impact. The severity index is based on a bloom’s biomass – the amount of algae – over a sustained period.

The largest blooms occurred in 2011, with a severity index of 10, and 2015, at 10.5. Last year’s bloom had a severity index of 3.6, while 2017 was 8.0.

The Ohio State University’s Stone Laboratory and Ohio Sea Grant hosted NOAA’s annual HABs Forecast for western Lake Erie today.

Lake Erie blooms consist of cyanobacteria – also called blue-green algae – that are capable of producing the liver toxin microcystin, which poses a risk to human and wildlife health. Such blooms may result in higher costs for cities and local governments that need to treat drinking water, prevent people from enjoying fishing, swimming, boating and visiting the shoreline, and harm the region’s vital summer tourism economy. These effects will vary in location and severity due to winds that may concentrate or dissipate the bloom.

“Communities along Lake Erie rely upon clean, healthy water to fuel their community’s well-being and economic livelihoods,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “This forecast provides timely and trusted science-based information to water managers and public health officials so they can better anticipate blooms, mitigate impacts and reduce future outbreaks.”

The size of a bloom isn’t necessarily an indication of how toxic it is. For example, the toxins in a large bloom may not be as concentrated as in a smaller bloom. Each algal bloom is unique in terms of size, toxicity and, ultimately, its impact to local communities. NOAA is actively developing tools to detect and predict how toxic blooms will be.

This year, the lake temperature has remained relatively cool due to the higher-than-average rainfall in the region, so the bloom is not expected to start until late July when the water temperature reaches 65 to 70 degrees. This contrasts with 2018, when exceptionally warm weather at the beginning of June caused an early start.

Calm winds in July, especially in western Lake Erie, tend to allow the algal toxins to concentrate, making blooms more harmful. The bloom typically peaks in the western part of the lake in September. Most of the rest of the lake will not be affected.

“This extremely wet spring has shed light on the movement of nutrients from the land into Lake Erie,” said Christopher Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory. “Despite the predicted size of this year’s bloom, portions of the lake will be algae free during the bloom season and the lake will remain a key asset for the state. Ongoing research continues to help us understand bloom movement and toxin production, and remains vital to providing our water-treatment facilities with the tools, technology and training they need to keep our drinking water safe.”

The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA ecological forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers and the public. In addition to the early season projections from NOAA and its partners, NOAA also issues HAB bulletins twice a week during the bloom season.

NOAA continues to expand the use of satellite data into its Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast System, which is helping improve the accuracy of bloom forecast products. The data comes from the European Union’s Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite, which has instruments that measure coastal water color and have proven to be especially useful for detecting and tracking algal blooms. NOAA is also continuing to work with its academic partners to refine and improve the models used to develop the forecasts.

“This spring brought regular, heavy rainfall to the Maumee River watershed which would normally carry a lot of nutrients into the lake,” said Richard Stumpf, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s lead scientist for the seasonal Lake Erie bloom forecast. “However, due to the amount of rain this year, farmers were unable to plant their fields, which reduced the nutrient concentration. That, combined with higher than normal lake levels, presents an opportunity to test the accuracy of our models.” 

Nutrient load data for the forecasts came from Heidelberg University. The various forecast models are run by NOAA’s NCCOS, the University of Michigan, North Carolina State University, LimnoTech, Stanford University and the Carnegie Institution for Science. Field observations used for monitoring and modeling are done in partnership with NOAA’s Ohio River Forecast Center, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory, University of Toledo and Ohio EPA.